**Recent developments in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election support trader expectations that a court will not rule the June 2 primary fraudulent.** The top-two primary advanced incumbent Mayor Karen Bass and challenger Nithya Raman to the November 3 runoff after Spencer Pratt and others were eliminated. Allegations of irregularities in ballot batch reporting and signature verification surfaced immediately after the primary but were rejected by the Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder’s office, which confirmed Pratt received votes in every update, and by federal prosecutors examining the results. No verified evidence of widespread fraud sufficient to alter outcomes has been presented in court. Ongoing federal litigation focuses on voter eligibility questions for the general election rather than retroactive invalidation of the primary. With the runoff underway and no successful legal challenges to the June results, the consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with the absence of judicial findings or new developments that would trigger such a ruling.