**Hsieh Kuo-liang maintains a modest lead in the Keelung mayoral race as the KMT incumbent seeking re-election on November 28, while DPP challenger Tung Tzu-wei narrows the gap through strong local organization and higher reported turnout intent among supporters.** Recent KMT-commissioned polls from mid-October show Hsieh at 41-43% support versus Tung’s 35-38%, with a larger edge in “likely winner” perceptions; earlier surveys throughout 2026 described an even closer contest. The presence of a minor independent candidate further fragments the field without altering the primary contest. Trader pricing reflects the incumbent’s structural advantages in a traditionally KMT-leaning city alongside persistent uncertainty from undecided voters, approval ratings near 50%, and the potential for late campaign developments or turnout differences to shift the narrow margin before voting.