Bolsonaro remains under house arrest while serving a 27-year sentence handed down in 2025 for coup-plotting charges tied to the 2022 election. His son Flávio Bolsonaro advanced strongly from the first round of the October 2026 presidential contest against incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and has pledged an immediate pardon upon inauguration in January 2027. A favorable runoff outcome would position that action well before the March 2027 resolution date. Parallel routes include a Supreme Court criminal review petition now slated for full-court consideration after the runoff and potential congressional amnesty legislation backed by the Liberal Party’s expanded legislative bloc. Recent election results and the timing of any new government have anchored trader assessments of near-term release.