**The primary driver behind the 68.5% market-implied probability for “No” on a 2026 engagement is the couple’s deliberate pace.** Multiple sources describe their relationship—public since spring 2026 after private time together—as “going really well” yet explicitly “not rushing into something that serious,” with Elordi house-hunting solo while staying at Jenner’s place and no joint living or commitment plans reported. Recent October 2026 appearances, including PDA at the Academy Museum Gala and coordinated Paris/Milan fashion week outings, have reinforced their status as an established pair without any engagement signals or timeline acceleration. Jenner’s candid October comments on *The Kardashians* about past dating frustrations further underscore a focus on the present rather than rapid milestones. With roughly ten weeks remaining in the year and no precursor reports of proposals, traders view a 2026 engagement as improbable absent a sudden shift.