Recent polling averages show Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party leading Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud by a narrow margin in projected Knesset seats ahead of the October 27 election, establishing Likud as the clear market favorite for second place. Neither the Netanyahu-aligned bloc nor the main opposition grouping reaches the 61-seat majority threshold in most surveys, leaving smaller lists and turnout patterns as pivotal swing factors. Efforts to consolidate right-wing support, including pressure on parties near the 3.25% electoral threshold, and Benny Gantz’s withdrawal from the race have reinforced the two-party dominance at the top. Trader pricing reflects these seat projections and the limited time remaining for late shifts in voter blocs or Arab-sector participation.