Recent polling averages place Yashar near 22 seats in a dead-heat race, with the Zionist opposition bloc and Netanyahu-aligned parties each hovering around 50-54 seats and neither bloc securing a clear path to 61. Gadi Eisenkot’s party gained ground after Benny Gantz’s withdrawal redistributed moderate voters, while Likud remains close behind amid fluctuations in smaller lists. Threshold uncertainty for parties such as the Reservists-Economic slate and Amcha Israel continues to influence final seat distributions through surplus-vote mechanics. Traders price the 22-23 seat range highest because late-campaign shifts among centrist and security-focused voters, plus bloc negotiations after October 27, keep outcomes within a narrow band consistent with current surveys.