Recent polling averages project Likud at 19–22 Knesset seats, well below its 32 seats from the prior election, reflecting sustained voter shifts toward opposition lists such as Yashar and B'Yachad amid security and economic concerns. Benny Gantz’s withdrawal further consolidated support away from the Likud-led bloc, which multiple surveys place at 48–52 seats overall. Traders assign 95.7% probability to a seat loss for Likud because these trends have held across recent fieldwork despite minor daily fluctuations. Late developments that could still alter the outcome include unusually high or low turnout among Arab voters, additional parties clearing or missing the electoral threshold, or last-minute campaign events in the final days before the October 27 vote.