Recent polling averages place Ra'am at 5–6 Knesset seats, equivalent to roughly 4–5% of the national vote, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around the 4–5.5% bands. Arab voter turnout remains the primary variable, as Mansour Abbas’s party competes with the Joint List for support in the Triangle, Negev, and mixed cities while urging higher participation to bolster the anti-Netanyahu bloc. The September 23 Central Elections Committee disqualification attempt, overturned unanimously by the Supreme Court on October 2, resolved eligibility questions but highlighted mobilization challenges. Ra’am’s inclusion of a Jewish former police official in the second slot on its list signals outreach efforts, yet persistent reluctance among Zionist parties to partner post-October 7 limits upside scenarios. Turnout fluctuations or shifts in Arab-list vote splitting could still move the final share within the narrow band reflected in current trader consensus.