Recent polling averages place Shas at roughly 7–8 Knesset seats ahead of the October 27 election, with most surveys clustering in the 7–9 range and few outliers above 10. This positioning reflects Shas’s stable Sephardi ultra-Orthodox base, reinforced by its surplus-vote agreement with United Torah Judaism and consistent performance across pollsters. Aryeh Deri’s October statements conditioning any future government participation on passage of a Haredi draft-exemption law have clarified the party’s negotiating stance without materially shifting its projected seat total. Broader bloc dynamics—Netanyahu-aligned parties averaging near or below 52 seats—have kept attention on threshold and surplus mechanics rather than dramatic swings for Shas itself. Traders therefore assign the highest probability to an 8–9 seat outcome as the range most aligned with current evidence.