Recent polling averages ahead of Israel’s October 27 Knesset election place Otzma Yehudit, led by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, at roughly 7–9 seats, consistent with the market’s leading 6–7 and 8–9 outcomes. The party remains within the Netanyahu-aligned right-wing bloc, yet tensions over portfolio demands, coalition exclusion rumors, and bloc seat shortfalls have introduced volatility. Most recent surveys show the list passing the 3.25% threshold comfortably but rarely exceeding single digits, while surplus agreements and voter turnout among religious Zionist voters could influence final allocation. Traders appear to weigh these polling trends and procedural factors more heavily than unconfirmed campaign statements.