Recent escalations in US-Iran tensions, including new Treasury sanctions targeting Iranian airlines and foreign service providers effective in late September 2026, have prompted widespread flight cancellations to destinations such as the UAE, Iraq, and Georgia. Israeli Air Force jets conducted a large-scale training sortie reaching Iran's border on October 21, passing through Syrian and Iraqi airspace along a route consistent with potential strikes, shortly before Israeli elections. Iranian officials have issued warnings about regional flight access and maintained high air-defense alert status amid fragile post-2026 ceasefire conditions. International regulators including EASA have extended avoidance advisories for the Tehran FIR through mid-November, while Iran's airspace remains formally open to limited domestic and transit operations. These factors shape trader assessments of closure risks tied to diplomatic or military triggers before year-end deadlines.