Diplomatic negotiations following 2025-2026 U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran's enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan continue to shape prospects for IAEA access. Iran has restricted inspectors from the damaged sites since the attacks, citing the absence of established protocols and linking any visits to a final bilateral agreement plus sanctions relief. As of late October 2026, Iranian officials stated no inspections were scheduled, countering U.S. claims of an interim understanding. Mediator proposals from Qatar and Pakistan for confidential verification of uranium stockpiles, including material believed stored in Isfahan tunnels, have surfaced but remain unconfirmed. IAEA Director General Grossi has indicated ongoing work on modalities, while verification at these locations stays suspended amid broader NPT safeguards compliance disputes. Trader assessments hinge on near-term diplomatic progress within specified resolution windows.
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