Most Republican House primaries have concluded with only four incumbents defeated—Dan Crenshaw, Thomas Massie, Andy Ogles, and Cory Mills—placing the cycle total squarely inside the 4-6 range. Trader consensus reflects this limited turnover despite a high share of contested primaries and active challenger campaigns, including several backed by prominent endorsements. Late-cycle primaries in states such as Louisiana remain, yet few competitive races persist and historical patterns show low additional upset rates once most contests finish. Unexpected primary losses in remaining districts or surprise withdrawals could push totals higher, though such outcomes appear improbable given current filing deadlines and polling trends.