Wisconsin’s congressional map features two safe Democratic seats in urban Milwaukee and Madison districts, while Republicans hold a 6-2 edge overall entering the 2026 cycle. Trader consensus around three or four Democratic wins centers on the rematch in the competitive Third District, where Democrat Rebecca Cooke challenges incumbent Republican Derrick Van Orden in a race rated toss-up or lean Democratic by multiple forecasters, supported by recent fundraising advantages and polling shifts. Additional factors include the lean-Republican First District and potential movement in the Eighth, though structural advantages favor Republican retention in most rural and suburban seats. A pending lawsuit challenging the current congressional maps adds limited near-term uncertainty, with no immediate redistricting changes expected before November. These dynamics reflect the narrow path for Democrats to expand beyond their baseline while highlighting barriers to larger gains.