Minnesota's eight U.S. House districts feature four held by Democrats and four by Republicans entering the 2026 cycle. District 2 stands as an open seat after the Democratic incumbent's retirement, rated likely Democratic across major forecasters due to its modest D+ lean and candidate recruitment. District 1 remains the primary battleground, where the Republican incumbent faces a tightening contest amid recent polling showing the race within a few points and a national environment favoring Democratic gains in the House overall. The remaining six districts align with established partisan leans, producing limited crossover potential. Trader consensus at 68 percent for exactly four Democratic seats reflects these structural baselines and the modest probability of a single net pickup, while the 21.5 percent on five incorporates upside from District 1 polling movement. Resolution occurs after the November 3 general election based on certified results.