Recent softness in U.S. labor market data, including the weak September payrolls print of just 29,000 jobs, has eased near-term rate hike expectations ahead of the October 28 FOMC meeting, where markets currently assign roughly 80-85% probability to a hold at the 3.75-4.00% fed funds target range. This has contributed to a pullback in the 2-year Treasury yield from intra-month highs near 4.95% to 4.65% as of October 22, even as September CPI came in hot at 3.7% year-over-year with core at 2.6%. Persistent inflation and resilient growth continue to support higher-for-longer policy expectations, while concerns about moderating AI capital spending have added downward pressure on front-end yields. Key near-term catalysts include the FOMC decision, October 29 GDP release, and subsequent inflation and employment reports that could shift the market-implied rate path.