Recent sharp declines in the 10-year Treasury yield, which dropped nearly 19 basis points to 4.95% on October 22—the largest one-day move since the 2023 banking crisis—reflect a flight-to-safety bid amid a tech and AI stock selloff, French sovereign debt turmoil, and softer housing data. Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with the policy rate at 3.75–4.00% after the September hike, has kept the curve steep while traders price limited near-term easing. With the October FOMC meeting approaching on the 27th–28th and expected to hold rates steady before a potential December increase, market-implied odds for further yield compression hinge on upcoming GDP, labor, and inflation releases that could shift expectations for monetary policy and term premiums.