The market-implied odds overwhelmingly favor 25°C as Hong Kong’s highest temperature on May 16, driven by official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirming that maximum under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions and light southerly flow. This reading falls squarely within mid-May climatological norms, where daytime peaks average 25–27°C during the East Asian monsoon transition period. Numerical weather models issued in the preceding days showed strong consensus on these values with little spread, reflecting minimal convective activity or frontal influences. Any late-stage data revision by the Observatory remains the only realistic scenario that could shift resolution, though such adjustments occur infrequently.