**Platforma Republicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” leads trader pricing at 19.3% amid broad uncertainty over Guinea-Bissau’s next legislative election.** The December 6, 2026, date set by the military-led transitional authorities now appears unworkable after the prime minister and National Electoral Commission confirmed missed candidacy deadlines and incomplete party preparations. A new constitution approved in the August 2026 referendum reduced assembly seats from 102 to 65, consolidated constituencies, and raised entry barriers for candidates and parties. Opposition groups remain divided following the 2025 coup that annulled prior results, with internal splits, boycotts, and restrictions on political activity limiting clear frontrunners. Trader consensus reflects the fluid timeline, fragmented field, and unresolved transition rules rather than settled polling or finalized slates. A firm new election date, restored campaign freedoms, or major alliance shifts could quickly reorder probabilities.