Marine Le Pen holds an 83.5% implied probability of winning the first round of the 2027 French presidential election, reflecting consistent polling leads of 34–37% amid a fragmented field. Recent nationwide protests over education, living costs, and public services have reinforced voter dissatisfaction with the incumbent administration, widening her advantage in surveys from OpinionWay, Ifop, and others. The center and center-right remain divided between Édouard Philippe, Gabriel Attal, and Bruno Retailleau, while Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Raphaël Glucksmann compete for the second spot at lower double-digit levels. Le Pen’s declared candidacy and resolved legal eligibility have further stabilized her frontrunner status ahead of the April 2027 vote.