Incumbent Republican Mario Diaz-Balart faces Democrat Nicole Locklin and independent Deborah Ann Meidinger Hosey in Florida's 26th congressional district, redrawn ahead of the 2026 midterms to include more territory in southwest Broward County alongside northwest Miami-Dade areas. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Likely Republican with projected margins of roughly 10-14 points, reflecting the incumbent's long tenure and primary election dynamics. Candidate debates have centered on affordability, immigration enforcement, and foreign policy amid the ongoing conflict with Iran. Limited district-specific polling leaves room for national midterm trends and turnout patterns among key voting blocs to influence the final margin, keeping trader probabilities balanced across narrow Republican edges and a Democratic upset.