Celina Leão (PP), the incumbent governor of Brazil’s Federal District, advanced to the October 25 runoff after capturing 49.93% of valid votes in the first round on October 4, falling just short of an outright win. She faces Leandro Grass (PT), who received 34.47%. Multiple post-first-round surveys, including Datafolha and Quaest, show Leão maintaining a 20-point lead in the runoff, with her support bolstered by strong performance across most electoral zones, approval ratings near 57%, and alignment with right-leaning parties and figures. Grass has consolidated opposition votes but trails significantly. The commanding market pricing reflects this consistent polling gap and Leão’s structural advantages as incumbent, though the outcome remains subject to final turnout and any late shifts among undecided or blank voters.