Ongoing US-Iran military tensions and maritime incidents around the Strait of Hormuz represent the key driver of trader positioning on these islands remaining under Tehran’s control. Recent US strikes have targeted Iranian ports, military bases, and Kharg Island infrastructure, yet satellite data and shipping reports confirm the oil terminal—handling the bulk of Iran’s crude exports—continues operating under Iranian authority with no territorial shifts reported. Disrupted loadings at Kharg have contributed to near-zero Iranian crude exports since late August, tightening global energy supply dynamics and supporting elevated benchmark crude prices amid persistent shipping attacks. Market-implied odds reflect strong consensus that full loss of control remains improbable absent major escalation, though upcoming diplomatic talks or further naval actions could introduce volatility before any resolution deadline.