**Sainz holds a narrow edge in the late-season battle with Alonso, as both Spanish drivers sit on 7 points with six Grands Prix remaining.** Williams has extracted slightly more from its package through stronger qualifying pace from Sainz, who has reached Q3 more consistently and scored in Azerbaijan, while Aston Martin’s AMR26 has been hampered by power-unit and reliability issues that have limited Alonso’s race pace and results. Recent form in Singapore underscored the gap, with Sainz finishing 14th after competitive one-lap pace and Alonso 16th amid ongoing engine concerns. The tight implied probability reflects the wisdom of crowds weighing Sainz’s marginal advantages in car development trajectory and driver consistency against Alonso’s experience and the small remaining points haul.