Mercedes leads the 2026 constructors’ standings by 134 points over Ferrari entering the United States Grand Prix at Circuit of the Americas, supported by consistent results from Andrea Kimi Antonelli and George Russell alongside recent aerodynamic upgrades that have maintained a competitive edge. Red Bull’s resurgence, driven by Max Verstappen’s back-to-back victories and improved pace, positions the team as a strong challenger alongside Ferrari, which plans a new floor and bodywork package for Austin. McLaren remains in contention despite recent relative decline, while lower probabilities for Aston Martin, Williams, Audi, Cadillac, Haas, Racing Bulls, and Alpine reflect larger performance gaps and limited recent form at the high-speed, bumpy Texas layout where tire management and qualifying position heavily influence outcomes.