**Eurozone GDP growth for Q3 2026 trades with the 0.8-1.1% y/y bin as the clear leader at 47.5% implied probability.** This positioning reflects the Q2 2026 outturn of 0.6% q/q and 1.2% y/y, alongside nowcasts pointing to a modest 0.3% sequential expansion in Q3 amid resilient consumer spending and defense outlays that offset softening manufacturing and elevated energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions. Recent October PMI readings at 51.9, down from 53.1, and weak French activity estimates around 0.1% q/q reinforce expectations for contained deceleration rather than outright contraction or acceleration. Full-year 2026 forecasts from the IMF and S&P Global cluster near 0.9-1.1%, aligning market-implied odds with the base case of steady but below-trend expansion ahead of the October 30 flash release.