Recent reports of Eritrean troop movements into Ethiopia’s Tigray region in early October 2026, including alleged advances near Adigrat and Zalambessa, have intensified bilateral tensions following the renewal of fighting between Ethiopian federal forces and a TPLF-led rebel alliance in late September. Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of an incursion and backing rebels, prompting drone strikes on Eritrean positions and a letter to the UN Security Council invoking self-defense rights, while Eritrea denies the claims, severs diplomatic ties, and alleges Ethiopian preparations for aggression tied to Red Sea port access ambitions. Ethiopian advances toward the border and international calls for restraint under the 2018 peace framework now shape assessments of escalation risks, with upcoming diplomatic or military developments likely to influence trader views on any full-scale Eritrean invasion.