Incumbent Iliana Iotova maintains a commanding lead in the October 25 first round of Bulgaria’s presidential election, with recent polls placing her ticket at 41–47 percent support against Andrey Gyurov’s 27–30 percent and Kostadin Kostadinov’s 10–12 percent. This positioning stems from her status as acting president backed by the Progressive Bulgaria movement and consistent advantages in voter intention surveys conducted through late October. Gyurov, a former caretaker prime minister positioned as a reform alternative, trails despite some late narrowing in the gap. Low projected turnout near 38–40 percent and campaign focus on Black Sea security incidents and foreign policy alignments have reinforced Iotova’s frontrunner status, with runoff scenarios on November 1 showing her ahead by wide margins in hypothetical matchups. Trader pricing reflects this sustained polling edge and structural advantages for the leading ticket.