Iliana Iotova holds a commanding lead in the October 25 first round due to her status as incumbent, consistent backing from major parties including Progressive Bulgaria and the Bulgarian Socialist Party, and recent polling that places her ticket at 43–49 percent support. Surveys by Market Links and Myara in mid-October showed her ahead of Andrey Gyurov by 14–17 points, with Kostadin Kostadinov a distant third near 10 percent and all others below 5 percent. Projected turnout of 37–41 percent makes a first-round majority unlikely under Bulgarian rules, yet the data point to Iotova securing the largest share and advancing to the November 1 runoff. Trader consensus reflects this structural advantage and the absence of late momentum for challengers. A surge among undecided voters, unexpectedly high turnout favoring opposition tickets, or major campaign developments in the final days remain the main variables that could narrow the gap.