Recent polling from multiple agencies shows incumbent Iliana Iotova and running mate Kiril Valchev leading Andrey Gyurov and Georgi Kandev by 13–18 points in the October 25 first round, with projected turnout near 39–40 percent. This positioning stems from Iotova’s established support among left-leaning and socialist-leaning voters, contrasted with Gyurov’s backing from reformist and center-right coalitions, while a third-place Vazrazhdane ticket draws roughly 10–12 percent. The campaign’s conclusion, election silence period, and absence of major late shifts have stabilized these shares, making a first-round outright win improbable under Bulgarian rules requiring over 50 percent participation. Traders price the 10–20 percent margin highest because historical turnout patterns and current survey trends point to that range as the most likely outcome, with narrower or wider gaps remaining possible only if undecided voters or turnout deviate sharply from expectations.