**Recent polling from multiple agencies (Alpha Research, Gallup, Market Links, Trend) conducted in mid-to-late October 2026 shows incumbent President Iliana Iotova consistently leading the first-round vote share at 41–47% among decided voters, with Andrey Gyurov in second at 28–31% and Kostadin Kostadinov in a distant third near 10–12%.** Expected turnout of 37–41% falls well below the 50% threshold required for a first-round win, ensuring a November 1 runoff between the top two. The 12–18 point gap between Iotova and Gyurov has narrowed modestly from earlier in the campaign but remains stable, reflecting Iotova’s backing from Progressive Bulgaria and the Bulgarian Socialist Party versus Gyurov’s support from reformist parties. With the vote occurring on October 25 and no major late developments reported, trader pricing centers on a 10–20% margin for Iotova as the most probable outcome.