Lula holds a commanding position in Rio Grande do Norte for the October 25 presidential runoff, backed by consistent polling leads of roughly 25-30 points over Flávio Bolsonaro. Recent surveys, including DataVero and Quaest fieldwork from mid-October, show Lula at 59-62% against 33%, building on his first-round result of nearly 60% in the state. The Northeast's established support for the PT and Lula's incumbency advantages have sustained this margin, with most voters indicating firm preferences. A narrower national contest leaves limited room for late swings, though factors such as turnout differentials or shifts among first-round supporters of other candidates could still influence the final state outcome.