Lula maintains a dominant position in Ceará for the October 25 runoff due to consistent polling leads of 30 points or more throughout the campaign and a first-round result of 63% to Flávio Bolsonaro’s 31%. The state’s Northeast voting patterns favor PT candidates, reinforced by the recent first-round gubernatorial win for aligned incumbent Elmano de Freitas. Multiple surveys from institutes such as Datafolha, Quaest, and Real Time Big Data have shown stable double-digit advantages in both first-round and runoff scenarios, with limited movement among other candidates’ voters. While national trends and turnout shifts could narrow margins elsewhere, Ceará’s structural preferences and lack of recent local developments capable of altering the gap sustain trader consensus on Lula finishing first.