Lula holds a 67% implied probability of finishing first in Amazonas in the October 25 second round, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 33%, reflecting the incumbent's narrow first-round edge in the state (48.2% to 45%) and consistent polling leads there. State-specific surveys, including Quaest and PoderData from early to mid-October, show Lula at or above 47-49% versus Flávio's 43-49%, driven by stronger interior support and alignment with local PSD gubernatorial candidate Omar Aziz. National trends favoring Flávio have not fully translated in Amazonas, where environmental policy contrasts and voter turnout patterns in Manaus versus rural areas continue to shape the close contest. The second-round timeline leaves limited room for late shifts before resolution.