SNSD holds a commanding 95% implied probability for second place in Bosnia and Herzegovina’s parliamentary election following the October 4 vote. Preliminary results from the Central Election Commission show the party, dominant in Republika Srpska, securing roughly 16.9% of the national vote for the House of Representatives—behind only SDA at about 19.8%—while outperforming SDP BiH, HDZ BiH, and smaller lists. This positioning stems from strong ethnic Serb consolidation around SNSD despite Milorad Dodik’s office ban, consistent entity-level strength, and limited national crossover from other groups. Final certification or minor adjustments to overseas and absentee ballots remain the primary variables that could still shift the exact ranking, though current margins make such changes improbable.