Elevated inflation pressures from Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries, higher utility tariffs, and sustained government spending have anchored trader expectations for no change at the Bank of Russia’s December 18 meeting. Recent data showed annual inflation at 6.8 percent with underlying price growth stalled near 5–6 percent annualized, prompting the central bank on October 23 to hold the key rate at 14 percent and raise its 2026 inflation forecast to 7.1–7.6 percent. The updated medium-term outlook, including a higher projected average rate for 2027, signals limited scope for easing while leaving modest room for a 25-basis-point cut if conditions improve. This combination of persistent supply-side shocks and fiscal dynamics explains the strong consensus around unchanged policy alongside smaller probabilities for further reductions.