The Banco Central do Brasil’s November 4 Copom decision is priced for a 25-basis-point Selic cut to 13.50 percent, consistent with the latest Focus survey median projecting a 13.25 percent year-end rate after the September reduction to 13.75 percent. Persistent inflation—mid-October IPCA-15 at 4.62 percent year-over-year, above the 4.5 percent tolerance ceiling, and 2026 expectations at 5.22 percent—supports only gradual easing despite September’s softer monthly print. Slowing activity, with 2026 GDP forecasts trimmed to around 1.83 percent, provides room for continued calibration, while de-anchored medium-term expectations and fiscal uncertainty ahead of the presidential runoff reinforce the committee’s data-dependent, cautious stance. The 82.5 percent market-implied probability for the 25-basis-point move reflects trader consensus on maintaining the established pace rather than accelerating or pausing.