Recent September IPCA data at 0.82% monthly and 4.58% year-over-year, exceeding the 4.5% tolerance ceiling around the 3% target, has tempered expectations for aggressive easing despite a slowing economy. The Banco Central do Brasil cut the Selic to 13.75% in September, and the Focus survey now projects 13.25% by year-end, implying two additional 25-basis-point reductions. Political developments, including Flavio Bolsonaro’s polling lead and prospects for tighter fiscal policy, have supported asset gains and modestly lowered rate forecasts. With November and December Copom meetings approaching, trader-implied odds favor a measured 25-basis-point December move at 54%, reflecting caution over sticky services inflation and above-target expectations near 5.22%.