Houthi territorial advances along Yemen’s Red Sea coast and control of Mayyun Island since mid-September 2026 have heightened risks to Bab el-Mandeb transits, following their July embargo on Saudi-linked vessels and subsequent strikes on tankers. Shipping data show sustained but reduced flows, with tanker passages down roughly 15–47 percent from prior baselines and overall vessel transits running at 70–80 percent of recent averages amid elevated insurance and rerouting costs. Saudi-backed Yemeni forces launched a counteroffensive in early October claiming gains around Mocha and the strait approaches, though Houthi forces dispute these accounts and maintain positions enabling potential interdiction. Parallel disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz have increased reliance on the Red Sea route for Saudi crude exports, amplifying the strait’s strategic weight. Ongoing military operations, possible Houthi retaliation, and carrier decisions on Red Sea services remain key variables for any shift toward effective closure.