Houthi forces seized key Yemeni Red Sea coastal positions including Mocha port and Perim Island in mid-September 2026, enhancing their ability to target shipping after announcing a Saudi vessel embargo in July. This followed the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz in late February 2026, which shifted Saudi oil exports through the East-West pipeline to Yanbu and raised the strategic stakes for Bab el-Mandeb transits. Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces launched a counteroffensive in early October, claiming recapture of coastal areas and the strait approaches, though Houthis dispute these gains and continue attacks. Traffic volumes remain sharply reduced from pre-2023 levels with ongoing risks, yet vessels continue passing without a formal closure declaration. Upcoming Saudi airstrikes, potential further coastal fighting, and any escalation tied to regional diplomacy could shift control and shipping patterns.