Recent polls from October 2026 show Javier Milei and Axel Kicillof running essentially tied in first-round and runoff scenarios for the October 2027 election, with each around 31% initially and 42% in head-to-head matchups. Milei’s position as incumbent president of La Libertad Avanza provides a floor of core support and benefits from anti-Peronist sentiment in polarized contests, though his government approval hovers near 36-38% amid widespread economic dissatisfaction. Kicillof, as Buenos Aires governor and leading Peronist figure, has consolidated opposition backing through public appearances and calls to rebuild the movement, narrowing the gap from earlier leads. Lower probabilities for Sergio Massa, Myriam Bregman, Daniel Hadad, and others reflect fragmented support and limited momentum outside the main contest. Trader pricing reflects this competitive dynamic ahead of primary and general vote timelines.