Brazil's Senate has never removed an STF justice through impeachment, and the process demands a two-thirds supermajority plus advancement by the chamber president, creating steep procedural barriers. Recent right-wing gains in the October 2026 elections position roughly 49 senators favoring action against figures like Alexandre de Moraes starting in 2027, yet the new legislature convenes only in February and any trial would extend well beyond year-end. A December 2025 liminar by Gilmar Mendes further raised thresholds for early stages, while pending presidential runoff and internal court disputes add uncertainty without accelerating timelines. These structural and temporal constraints underpin trader consensus against removal before 2027, though an unforeseen major scandal or rapid Senate override of existing rules could theoretically compress the process.