Anthropic’s planned mid-November IPO at a potential $1.5–2 trillion valuation, supported by third-quarter revenue of $16.8 billion and an annualized run rate near $65–74 billion, underpins the 93% market-implied probability that it will hold the higher valuation on December 31. Traders price in this outcome given Anthropic’s May 2026 $965 billion post-money round and secondary trading levels near that mark, while OpenAI remains anchored at its March $852 billion valuation pending an unclosed $30 billion round targeting $1.25–1.4 trillion. Key swing factors include final IPO pricing multiples, OpenAI’s ability to close its bridge financing before year-end, and any post-listing volatility in Anthropic shares.