**Traders assign an 89% probability that Anthony Fauci will not face charges by December 31, 2026, reflecting the substantial procedural and legal hurdles that remain despite ongoing scrutiny.** A preemptive presidential pardon issued in January 2025 covers his federal actions from 2014 through early 2025, limiting federal exposure for most pandemic-related conduct. Recent Senate committee action on contempt of Congress, stemming from his July 2026 testimony in which he invoked the Fifth Amendment more than 100 times, has produced a referral to the Justice Department that faces documented legal complexities, including questions over the pardon’s scope and the need for full Senate approval. Parallel state-level inquiries launched by attorneys general in Florida, Louisiana, and Alabama remain at the investigative stage without indictments. While a former aide faced unrelated records charges earlier in 2026, no comparable action has advanced against Fauci himself in the narrow remaining window.