**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 95.8% because Blue Origin has no realistic path to a New Glenn launch or high-risk static-fire test before October 31, 2026.** The heavy-lift rocket remains grounded after its May 28, 2026, pad explosion during a hot-fire test at Cape Canaveral’s Launch Complex 36, which destroyed the vehicle and heavily damaged the sole operational pad. Repairs and reconstruction are still underway, with the company recently announcing major infrastructure expansions—including new pads and facilities—while shifting return-to-flight expectations to early 2027 rather than a late-2026 window. No orbital missions or engine tests are scheduled in the next 12 days. Blue Origin’s smaller New Shepard suborbital vehicle has a separate, more established flight record and is not currently positioned for an imminent attempt that could produce a comparable failure. The 12-day window to resolution leaves almost no time for regulatory approvals, vehicle integration, or pad certification to enable activity. Realistic tail risks include an unscheduled static-fire test slipping through before month-end or an unforeseen regulatory or technical issue accelerating a hasty attempt, though both remain low-probability given the documented pad status and company statements. Overall, the market reflects the practical reality that Blue Origin’s orbital program is paused for repairs well into the coming months.