Recent expeditions to Nikumaroro, including a high-profile October 2026 effort backed by Purdue University and the Archaeological Legacy Institute, have come up empty, with satellite anomalies revealed as trees and coral debris rather than wreckage from Amelia Earhart’s Lockheed Electra. Decades of fruitless searches around the atoll and competing theories have entrenched trader skepticism that a definitive discovery will materialize before year’s end. With roughly ten weeks remaining, the market-implied 96 percent probability on “No” reflects the slim odds of a breakthrough amid the mystery’s long cultural endurance and absence of fresh leads. An upset would require an improbable last-minute verification of artifacts or a rival expedition’s sudden success, scenarios history suggests are remote.