Recent polling for the Amazonas gubernatorial runoff shows Omar Aziz holding a narrow to moderate lead over Professora Maria do Carmo, with valid-vote estimates ranging from 53-61 percent for Aziz depending on the survey. Regional divides remain central, as Aziz draws stronger support across interior municipalities while the contest stays tighter in Manaus and select urban centers. First-round vote distribution and coalition alignments from opposing national blocs continue to shape turnout expectations ahead of the October 25 vote. These factors, combined with typical polling margins of error near election day, sustain trader uncertainty around the final margin and help explain balanced pricing across wider and narrower Aziz victory brackets.