**Limited theatrical distribution has anchored trader consensus around a sub-$2 million opening weekend for the Sacha Baron Cohen-directed Ali G return.** Amazon MGM Studios scaled back the rollout from an initial wider plan to a three-day engagement across roughly 125 theaters, with many locations offering just one daily screening, effectively positioning the film as a brief theatrical placeholder ahead of Prime Video streaming. Mixed-to-negative reviews (around 50% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 38 Metacritic score) plus ongoing cultural pushback over the character’s satirical style have further dampened expectations. While strong word-of-mouth or localized demand in key markets could theoretically nudge results higher, the screen count and timing make any outcome above $3 million improbable.