Recent polling averages place Democratic challenger Mary Peltola narrowly ahead of Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan in Alaska’s ranked-choice Senate contest, with four-candidate ballots showing Peltola at 47-48% and Sullivan at 43-47% in surveys from mid-October. This positioning keeps first-round margins tight, as minor candidates including Daniel J. Sullivan and Gerald Heikes draw limited support that could influence redistribution under the state’s voting system. The October 23 DOJ lawsuit seeking to block certification of a Peltola win over ballot-name confusion adds legal uncertainty ahead of the November 3 election, sustaining trader focus on sub-6% spreads between the top contenders while historical base rates for Alaska Senate races underscore the potential for late shifts in turnout or endorsements.