Recent polling shows Mary Peltola and Dan Sullivan locked in a toss-up contest under Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system, with final-round simulations producing margins typically under 5 points. This tightness stems from Peltola’s narrow first-round leads in October surveys, strong second-choice support for both candidates, and limited movement among undecided voters or minor candidates. Trader consensus on specific victory margins remains fragmented because small shifts in turnout among independents or rural voters, or changes in ranked preferences during tabulation, could easily alter the final gap. Upcoming factors such as the November 3 election results and any late campaign developments could quickly consolidate probabilities around narrower or wider outcomes.